South Africa’s employment situation – a paradox!

According to Statistics South Africa’s recently released Quarterly Employment Statistics report, total employment numbers decreased, quarter-on-quarter, by 194,000 in the quarter from September to December 2023.

A total of 10,899,000 people were employed in September 2023, this figure dropping by nearly 200,000 to 10,705,000 in December 2023. Decreases in employment numbers were recorded in the following sectors: community services (-214,000), construction (-19,000), business services (-12,000), manufacturing (-7,000), and mining (-1,000).

These numbers were, however, partially offset by increases in employment levels in the following sectors: trade (+56,000), transport (+2,000), and electricity (+1,000).

Employment numbers increased overall by only 98,000 year-on-year, from December 2022 to December 2023.

Put into perspective, the current South African labour force is estimated at 22,4 million of whom only 14,5 million are actually working with 7,9 million people actively seeking work. The labour force comprises all persons between the ages of 15 and 64 who are either employed, unemployed, and who are not economically active.

Somewhat paradoxically, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is fast becoming more and more integrated into the business world of South Africa, with a commensurate increase in AI jobs becoming available. The past five years have seen an unprecedented rise in demand for AI specialists and professionals, with AI vacancies increasing by 182% over the same period.

An analysis of the South African job market over the last 12 months has revealed that most of the AI job opportunities are IT-related. 

The most in-demand AI jobs in South Africa at the moment include, inter alia, the following:

Data Scientists (29%), Data Analysts (24%), Data Engineers (16%), Software Developers (11%), Machine Learning Specialists (9%), Business Analysts (4%), Sales Professionals (4%), and IT Architects (3%).

AI job candidates require strong programming, data science, statistics and machine learning skills and competencies. The top five key skills employers are seeking are: predictive modelling, machine learning, SQL, Java and Python.

Against this backdrop, there is absolutely no doubt that AI will exacerbate the already dire unemployment situation in SA. South Africa had the dubious distinction of having the highest level of unemployment in the world in 2023, recording an unemployment rate of 28,4%. South Africa’s current unemployment rate is 32,1%, and all indications are that the country will register the highest unemployment rate on the African continent in 2024. 

Perhaps a more significant paradox is that whilst AI will certainly create new jobs, improve productivity, raise salary levels, and contribute to boosting economic growth and by extension, the living standards in the country, AI will also displace workers, erode job quality, increase unemployment, and perpetuate inequality. The resultant effect of all this is that unemployment levels will continue to rise in South Africa, compounding the already disastrous socio-economic situation which has bedevilled the country for some considerable time now.

This may well be the reason as to why the South African Government has taken as long as it has to establish a discussion forum in order to formulate its approach to AI in the country.

On 5 April 2024 the South African Government, under the auspices of the Department of Communications and Digital Technologies (DCDT) launched South Africa’s first Artificial Intelligence (AI) Planning Discussion Document.  The purpose of the discussion document is, according to the DCDT, to initiate discussion between the public and private sectors to facilitate AI innovation with a view to developing a National AI policy.

The policy will aim to set out Government’s position on the adoption of AI in South Africa, Government-led AI initiatives, and a proposed regulatory framework and/or principles guiding the use and development of AI in South Africa.

The pessimist in me tells me this is too little, too late. The optimist in me tells me, better late than never. The realist in me, much ado about nothing. The cynic in me tells me that a lot of people in very high places are going to make an obscene amount of money out of AI.

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